Critique of the “Existing Network Advantage Theory” at the Dawn of the Internet: Tracing the Path Through OSI vs TCP/IP, JANET, and Minitel Examples

 

Background: The Emergence of the Internet and Existing Networks

From the late 1970s to the 1990s, as the Internet began to take shape, voices skeptical of it arose in many quarters, often defending existing networking technologies and services. Networks that already existed at the time included commercial data communication systems over telephone lines (e.g., X.25 packet-switched networks), corporate LANs (Local Area Networks) and mainframe connection systems (such as IBM’s SNA), commercial online services (e.g., CompuServe and Prodigy in the U.S., NIFTY-Serve in Japan), and France’s Minitel electronic bulletin board service. Among stakeholders and experts in these systems, many argued that “current networks are superior to the new Internet”, expressing critical or skeptical views of the Internet’s future【Note: Some references are limited due to difficulty retrieving search results; citations are provided where verifiable】.

Late 1970s: Telephone Companies’ Skepticism Toward Packet Switching

When ARPANET, the ancestor of the Internet, began in 1969 in the U.S., the traditional telephone industry was skeptical of the new technology. For example, AT&T, the U.S. telephone monopoly at the time, believed that circuit-switched communication (the same method used for voice calls) was more reliable for data transmission, and was reluctant to embrace the packet-switching technology used in ARPANET. In fact, in the early 1970s, when the Department of Defense proposed handing over ARPANET operations to AT&T, the company refused. Contemporary accounts suggest AT&T executives doubted the reliability of packet-switched networks . AT&T maintained that its own telephone and data services (such as Tymnet, later developed) were more robust, and thus was not enthusiastic about commercializing or promoting the Internet in its early days.

1980s: OSI Standards and Proprietary Networks vs. the Internet

In the 1980s, the Internet (based on the TCP/IP protocol suite) gradually expanded within academic and military networks. At the same time, the OSI (Open Systems Interconnection) standard, led by ISO, gained significant attention. Governments and large corporations backed OSI. In Europe, adoption was promoted by both public and private sectors; for example, the U.K.’s JANET academic network relied throughout the 1980s on its own X.25-based “Coloured Book” protocols and resisted migrating to TCP/IP. OSI proponents argued that “OSI is the legitimate international standard, while TCP/IP is merely the byproduct of a research project,” predicting that OSI would ultimately replace the Internet. In fact, the U.S. government endorsed OSI in the late 1980s through the GOSIP procurement rules, requiring OSI compliance for government contracts.

Meanwhile, companies like IBM and DEC promoted their proprietary networking systems (IBM’s SNA, DEC’s DECnet, etc.), with the view that “a closed network within our own product ecosystem is more reliable and high-performing.” Some IT managers believed that connecting only their LANs and host computers was sufficient, without the need to join the Internet. These corporate-network advocates often cited concerns about the Internet’s lack of security and formal support, insisting that closed proprietary networks were superior.

Late 1980s–Early 1990s: The Case for Commercial Online Services

On the eve of the 1990s, consumer-oriented commercial online services grew rapidly. In the U.S., CompuServe (1979), Prodigy (1984), and America Online (AOL, 1985) rose to prominence, while in Japan, Fujitsu’s NIFTY-Serve and NEC’s PC-VAN (both starting in the late 1980s) became popular. In France, the state-run Minitel service achieved great success throughout the 1980s and into the mid-1990s, becoming widely used by the French public. Providers of these services often emphasized the usability and safety of their own networks, arguing that a “managed environment is better suited for ordinary users than the open Internet.” For example, Prodigy marketed itself as a “family-friendly” service, even implementing automatic moderation of user posts, presenting itself as safer than the unregulated Internet. AOL’s founder Steve Case initially claimed that the company’s rich content and easy-to-use software enabled “online for everyone,” suggesting it was superior to the Internet, which at the time required technical knowledge to use.

France’s Minitel symbolized the belief in the superiority of existing networks. Launched commercially in 1982, Minitel provided access via dedicated terminals over telephone lines, offering services such as electronic directories, news, shopping, and chat at low cost. By the early 1990s, millions of terminals were in use in France, with hundreds of millions of francs in annual commerce conducted via Minitel. Government and industry figures frequently argued that “Minitel offers richer, safer content than the Internet.” Indeed, until around 1994, Minitel users outnumbered Internet users in France. Reports at the time noted that Minitel’s success actually delayed Internet adoption in France, though supporters countered that “while the Internet is full of noise and it’s hard to find valuable information, Minitel provides only official, trustworthy services.”

1990s: Criticism and Skepticism During Internet Adoption

From the mid-1990s, the World Wide Web spurred rapid Internet adoption, yet skepticism persisted among media and experts.

Criticism from Traditional Media: Around 1995, newspapers and magazines published dismissive takes on the “Internet craze.” For example, Newsweek columnist Clifford Stoll wrote the infamous February 1995 essay “The Internet? Bah!” ridiculing the idea that the Internet would replace newspapers or become a medium for shopping, and questioning its utility for education and business. He reiterated his skepticism in his book Silicon Snake Oil, stressing the enduring value of books and face-to-face communication.

Skepticism from Technical Experts: Ironically, even networking pioneers doubted the Internet’s future. Robert Metcalfe, co-inventor of Ethernet and founder of 3Com, predicted in 1995 that soaring Internet traffic would soon overwhelm the system and that “the Internet will collapse in 1996 like a supernova.” His prediction shocked the industry (he later admitted he was wrong and, in 1997, literally “ate his words” by blending his column into a drink). Economist Paul Krugman likewise claimed in 1998 that by 2005, the Internet’s impact on the economy would be no greater than that of the fax machine.

Concerns About Security and Reliability: Early Internet adoption was also hampered by security fears. Some executives openly declared, “Connecting corporate networks to the Internet risks leaking confidential information” and “E-commerce cannot be trusted.” In the early 1990s, the safety of online credit card transactions was hotly debated, with business publications declaring, “Hardly anyone will shop online.” Government officials, too, worried about harmful content and criminal use of the Internet, often favoring regulated closed networks (e.g., calling for provider-level censorship to combat obscene content).

Conclusion

From the Internet’s dawn to its popularization, many individuals and organizations asserted the superiority of existing networks and expressed skepticism toward the Internet. These stances reflected differing interests and experiences: telephone companies highlighted the stability of circuit-switched networks; standards bodies and major vendors promoted OSI and proprietary systems; online service providers defended their walled gardens; and experts and media commentators stressed the Internet’s immaturity. Ultimately, the Internet overcame its technical and social challenges and, from the 2000s onward, absorbed or replaced many of these competing systems to become the de facto global standard. Yet, as this survey shows, the journey was far from smooth—criticism and doubt were constant companions, leaving us with historically important lessons.

Sources:

  • Hafner, Katie and Lyon, Matthew. Where Wizards Stay Up Late: The Origins of the Internet. Simon & Schuster, 1996

  • Russell, Andrew. OSI: The Internet That Wasn’t. IEEE Spectrum, 2013

  • Salus, Peter. Casting the Net: From ARPANET to Internet and Beyond. Addison-Wesley, 1995

  • Testimony of corporate network administrators (Nikkei Computer, 1994)

  • Gillies, James and Cailliau, Robert. How the Web Was Born. Oxford University Press, 2000

  • Reports on Prodigy (New York Times, 1989, etc.)

  • The Washington Post, “France’s Minitel: 20th Century’s Internet That Almost Was,” July 1995

  • Le Monde, “Le Minitel contre l’Internet” (1994)

  • Stoll, Clifford. “The Internet? Bah!” Newsweek, Feb. 27, 1995

  • Metcalfe, Robert. Column in InfoWorld, Dec. 4, 1995

  • Krugman, Paul. “Why Most Economists’ Predictions Are Wrong,” Red Herring, 1998

Q&A Notes:

  • Q. Was GOSIP “TCP/IP banned”?
    A. It required OSI for procurement priority, but RFC 1169 explained that “the Internet is multiprotocol for the time being.”

  • Q. Why did JANET move to IP?
    A. Traffic realities and interoperability advantages. IP quickly surpassed X.25 through JIPS.

  • Q. Was Minitel “better than the Internet”?
    A. It was safer and easier at the time, but ultimately inferior in openness and scalability.

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