Crisis Early-Warning Matrix (Schools × Countries)

Crisis Early-Warning Matrix

Vertical: School / Horizontal: Country  |  As of 2025-08-12 (JST)

🟢 Low 🟡 Caution 🟠 Watch 🔴 Severe

School ▼ / Country ▶	🇺🇸 US	🇯🇵 Japan	🇨🇳 China	🇩🇪 Germany	🇫🇷 France	🇮🇹 Italy	🇬🇧 UK	🇨🇦 Canada	🇦🇺 Australia	🇰🇷 Korea
Classical / Neoclassical	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡
What to watch: Relative-price distortions, TFP, tariffs, energy/transport supply shocks.
Keynesian	🟠	🟡	🔴	🟡	🟠	🟡	🟠	🟠	🟡	🟡
What to watch: Employment, orders, inventories vs. demand gap, household saving rate, capex plans.
New Keynesian	🟡	🟠	🟠	🟢	🟢	🟡	🟠	🟢	🟢	🟢
What to watch: Inflation expectations, wage stickiness, real interest rate, unemployment gap.
Monetarist	🟢	🟡	🟠	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟢	🟢	🟡
What to watch: M2/M3 growth, money multiplier, financial conditions index, velocity of money.
RBC (Real Business Cycle)	🟡	🟠	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟠	🟡	🟠	🟡	🟠
What to watch: Hours worked, durables capex, supply constraints, logistics, persistence of relative-price shocks.
Austrian	🟡	🟡	🟠	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡
What to watch: Leverage, maturity mismatch, asset valuations, credit cycle amplitude.
Minsky / Post-Keynesian	🟠	🟢	🔴	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟢
What to watch: Delinquency rates, corporate bond OAS, shadow banking size, debt/income, real estate stress.
International Finance	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡
What to watch: Current account, FX reserves, FX level/vol, CDS, currency mismatch of external debt.
Institutional / Governance	🟡	🟢	🟠	🟢	🟠	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟢
What to watch: Policy uncertainty, statistical credibility, regulatory arbitrariness, consistency of law enforcement.
MMT-flavored (real constraints focus)	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡	🟡
What to watch: Labor/equipment/supply-chain capacity, broad inflation signs, import constraints via currency depreciation.
Behavioral Finance	🟡	🟢	🟢	🟢	🟢	🟢	🟡	🟢	🟢	🟢
What to watch: Volatility spikes, correlation jumps, theme crowding, IPO heat, retail flow skew.
Notes (data basis): A qualitative synthesis using recent inflation, labor, PMI/ISM and credit-stress indicators. US: Unemployment 4.2% (Jul), NFP +73k (Jul), CPI +2.7% y/y (Jun), ISM Services 50.1 (Jul). Japan: Unemployment 2.5% (Jun), CPI +3.3% (Jun), Services PMI 53.6 / Manufacturing PMI 48.8 (Jul). China: CPI 0.0% & PPI −3.6% (Jul), NBS Manufacturing PMI 49.3 / Non-manufacturing 50.1 (Jul). Germany: CPI +2.0% (Jul flash), Unemployment 3.6% (Jun ILO), Services PMI 50.6 (Jul). France: Unemployment 7.5% (Q2), HICP +0.9% (Jul flash), Services PMI 48.5 (Jul). Italy: Unemployment 6.3% (Jun), HICP +1.7% (Jul), Services PMI 52.3 / Manufacturing 49.8 (Jul). UK: CPI +3.6% (Jun), Unemployment 4.7% (Mar–May), Services PMI 51.8 / Manufacturing 48.2 (Jul). Canada: CPI +1.9% (Jun), Unemployment 6.9% (Jul), Manufacturing PMI 46.1 / Services 49.3 (Jul). Australia: CPI +2.1% (Q2) and monthly +1.9% (Jun), Unemployment 4.3% (Jun), Manufacturing 51.3 / Services 53.8 (Jul). Korea: CPI +2.1% (Jul), Unemployment 2.6% (Jun), Manufacturing PMI 48.0 (Jul).